A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
